There have already been 30 games decided by one score (eight points or fewer) in 2024, the most through Week 3 in NFL history. The unbeaten Steelers and Seahawks are certainly winning the close ones, while the Vikings are just blowing teams out.
Heading into Week 4, FOX Sports’ NFL experts provide their takes on those three teams as well as several other topics, including which winless teams are in real trouble, what the Browns can do with struggling quarterback Deshaun Watson, and which coach will be the first one fired.
Let’s get started.
Buying or selling: The Vikings are a legitimate Super Bowl contender?
I like the Vikings. Like … I really, really like the Vikings. Too much, maybe, because it’s hard to trust a team with Sam Darnold at quarterback. He’s been brilliant. And even still, we’re all just waiting for his three-interception game, aren’t we? For now, I’ll trust my eyes and say that he’s the perfect quarterback for this offense, which will only get better as T.J. Hockenson (ACL) and Jordan Addison (ankle) return to the lineup.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a defensive coach, Brian Flores, who has figured out how to neutralize some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Neither Brock Purdy nor C.J. Stroud could figure out what to do with Minnesota’s defensive front. Daniel Jones was a full-on disaster. There is no measurable reason to doubt the Vikings — except for those with a preexisting bias against Darnold. But I’m looking past that. I’m saying they’re contenders. — Henry McKenna
It starts at the top for Minnesota. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has created a culture of sustainable winning for the Vikings, culled from his time spent as a player with the Patriots under Bill Belichick and as an assistant coach under Sean McVay with the Rams. The Vikings have a defensive coordinator on a heater in Brian Flores, the best receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson and a quarterback finally playing to his potential in Sam Darnold. Minnesota’s 3-0 start is not a mirage. The Vikings are for real — they have beaten teams by an average of 18 points a game — and should be playing meaningful games in December and January. — Eric D. Williams
Which of these surprise struggling teams — Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars, 49ers — is in legit trouble?
Oh, it’s the Jags. There’s so much wrong there at 0-3. Two of the three teams they’ve lost to are 1-2. They’re 30th in scoring offense, 28th in scoring defense. Already without corner Tyson Campbell, they’re now without linebacker Foye Oluokun for a few weeks. Trevor Lawrence has two touchdowns in three games. They still get the Titans and Colts twice, but if they don’t show anything against the Texans this week, it’ll be far too deep a hole to dig out of in 2024. — Greg Auman
Definitely the Jags. They don’t seem to have any answers and confidence appears to be dwindling by the week. An 0-4 start is very possible, with a matchup with the ascendant Texans in Houston looming this week. The injury bug has done the Jags no favors, either. Top cornerback Tyson Campbell (hamstring) is on injured reserve, and other standout starters like tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) and linebacker Foye Oluokun (plantar fasciitis) are sidelined as well. — Ben Arthur
Is Trevor Lawrence heading toward the bust label after Jaguars’ 0-3 start?
The Bengals shouldn’t be 0-3, which is normally a death knell for a team’s playoff chances. Only one team since 2000 has made the playoffs after starting with that record. Cincy has Joe Burrow. It has Ja’Marr Chase. It has Tee Higgins. It has Trey Hendrickson. Those are cornerstone players at premium positions. But the Bengals have two bigger problems: 1) an owner who won’t pay the necessary price to fill out a playoff-caliber depth chart and 2) a coach who is clearly limited in his own abilities but also by the financial constraints in place. So, the Bengals are wasting the prime years of Burrow’s career. I wouldn’t be surprised if he never wins a Super Bowl with Cincinnati — only to jump ship in a few years and win elsewhere (like Matthew Stafford did, going from Detroit to the Rams). — Henry McKenna
Deshaun Watson enters Week 4 with the lowest QBR among starting QBs. What do Kevin Stefanski and the Browns do with Watson?
Nothing. There is literally nothing they can do since he’s in the third year of that ridiculous, fully guaranteed, five-year, $230 million contract that the Browns gave him. He is locked into their roster for the next three seasons and, given the size of their unfathomable commitment, they have to let it play out. They can’t have someone costing them that much on the bench, or injured reserve, or off the roster — even if some of those options might be better, given the way he’s currently playing. Right now he’s terrible.
All they can do is cross their fingers and hope he returns to at least the not-so-terrible level he played at in his six games last season. Yes, in a perfect world where money and cap space didn’t matter, they’d sit him and give his backup, Jameis Winston, a shot. But that’s not the world we live in. The Browns need to justify this contract. They can’t let it be an anchor that drags their franchise down until 2027 (though it probably will anyway). They’ve got to see if the talent that Watson undeniably once had is still there, somewhere. In other words, to use a cliché, they’ve made their bed. Now they have to lie in it, even if it means the franchise will be taking a very long, restless nap. — Ralph Vacchiano
Replace him. Put him on IR. Do whatever you have to. But get him off the top of the depth chart. Because of his contract, the Browns can’t cut him. They can’t really even trade him. If he keeps up his play at this (horrendous) level, Watson’s contract will go down as the worst in NFL history. The trade to get him, in which Cleveland gave up three first-round picks to Houston, might go down as the worst transaction in NFL history.
The Browns have Jameis Winston. While Winston is more or less the clone of Gardner Minshew (all stats and no game management), the Browns have little choice but to see what Winston can do. And frankly, they should turn over the offense to Winston today, because that might set him up for success with the game plan, rather than benching Watson mid-game and throwing Winston in with limited preparation. — Henry McKenna
The Steelers and Seahawks are surprise unbeatens so far mainly because of their defenses. Which team has more upside and how far can it ride its defense?
It must be Pittsburgh. It’s hard to appreciate how dominating the Steelers defense has been. To say it’s the best defense in the NFL is an understatement.
- No. 1 in scoring defense: A full touchdown better than the best in the NFL last season.
- No. 1 in total defense: Allowing 230 yards/game. Two years ago, nobody was under 300.
- No. 1 on third downs: Allowing 22%. Nobody under 29% last year.
- No. 1 in red zone: Allowing a ridiculous 17% TDs. Best in NFL was 37% in 2023.
If the Steelers can sustain anything close to that on defense and pair it with even a middle-of-the-pack offense, they’ll be good enough to host multiple playoff games. Remember when Steelers fans were worried about Cleveland? Or Cincinnati? — Greg Auman
It’s such a tough one, because Mike Tomlin might be the second-best coach in the NFL right now behind Andy Reid. But I think, on paper, the Seahawks are the more dangerous team. It’s just that their first-year coach, Mike Macdonald, is unproven. But I’ll go risky and put my faith in the Seahawks. And it’s actually not because of the defense, because the Steelers and Seahawks are probably equally strong in that phase. No, I’ll take Seattle because of the offense. Geno Smith is actually getting better in the same way that we saw Stafford mature mentally deep into his career. Smith has a powerful offensive line and elite pass-catchers. Seattle quietly has the total package. — Henry McKenna
Even though Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, I’ll take Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks here. Seattle has returned to the winning formula the franchise employed under Pete Carroll: Play stingy defense, run the rock and take care of the football. I’ll take Seattle over Pittsburgh because the Seahawks have a better quarterback in Geno Smith and a chance to generate a more explosive offense with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett on the perimeter. — Eric D. Williams
Which coach’s seat is the hottest after three weeks and who’ll be the first one fired?
There might be two different answers to those questions. I think the hottest seat in the NFL belongs to Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, and it will be engulfed in flames if Dallas loses to the Giants on Thursday night. He is in the final year of his contract, coaching the most high-profile team in the league, coming off three straight 12-5 seasons, with Super Bowl expectations. It’s a disaster that his team is 1-2 and it will be unfathomable if they fall to 1-3. But Jerry Jones is historically, painfully patient, despite his reputation. There’s almost no way he’ll fire McCarthy midseason (even if he has a ready replacement in defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer right there).
The guy most likely to be fired, though, is actually in Jacksonville, where Doug Pederson’s team is 0-3 and Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback who was once supposed to be the NFL’s next big thing, has turned into a longer-haired version of Daniel Jones. Pederson also works for a more impulsive owner, Shad Khan, who has twice fired coaches in-season (both in December) and has shown he’s willing to make big, bold moves. One thing on Pederson’s side: There’s probably not an obvious replacement on his staff. But a few more losses, and don’t be shocked if Khan gets angry and Bill Belichick at least gets a call. — Ralph Vacchiano
Can the Cowboys save their season?
I’d say Doug Pederson. Ahead of training camp, owner Shad Khan said this is the best Jaguars team the franchise has ever put together. But through three weeks, the Jags are one of the NFL’s three winless teams. They look just as lost as they did in their collapse down the stretch last season. Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the offense regressing in Year 3 is an indictment on Pederson’s coaching. — Ben Arthur
Doug Pederson in Jacksonville is the easy answer, but I’ll go with Matt Eberflus here. For Chicago, this season is all about getting Caleb Williams to play efficient football as a rookie, and so far the No. 1 pick is off to a rocky start. Part of that is because of shaky protection from the offensive line, but offensive coordinator Shane Waldron hasn’t done Williams any favors. Chicago must simplify things on offense so that Williams can play more decisively in the passing game, and ultimately his development falls on the shoulders of Eberflus. If Williams continues to struggle, the Bears might want to pull the cord early and get a jump on the head coaching search process for next season. — Eric D. Williams
The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
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