“It doesn’t matter how many times you’ve played someone – it doesn’t mean much,” de Minaur said.
“Playing Jack, he’s coming off his best year by far, [and] he’s playing with a lot of confidence. He’s got some very big weapons – his serve, backhand, and forehand at times, so it’s always tough facing someone like him, especially a lefty.
Jack Draper’s serve will be a key element of his quarter-final with de Minaur.Credit: Getty Images
“I’ve had some success in the past, so I’m going to try and draw on that, on what I was able to do well in those types of matches – and it’s the quarter-finals of a slam. I’m going to go out there and give it my all and compete … being passive is not going to get the job done.”
A deep dive into the numbers, and the two players’ history against each other, offers even more optimism for de Minaur.
De Minaur is statistically the best returner in the world but one of the underrated reasons for his emergence as a top-flight contender is that he also ranks ninth for percentage of second-serve points won.
The matchstat website illustrates the gap between de Minaur’s and Draper’s results on second serves is larger in the past six months, with the Australian winning almost 56 per cent of those points compared with the Brit’s less than 51 per cent.
At the US Open, de Minaur is at 61 per cent to Draper’s 58 per cent.
The same site reveals there is a high correlation between this statistic and match prediction accuracy, while another strong indicator is success on first-serve returns, where de Minaur has won almost 58 per cent of points in the same period to Draper’s 51.5 per cent.
Draper is the sole player in the men’s draw who is yet to drop a set, but one key reason is he has saved a remarkable 20 of 21 break points with his searing serve, which is well above his yearly average of 58 per cent.
According to ATP Tour statistics, de Minaur is ranked third on the tour in the past 12 months for break point conversion at 44.3 per cent, although Draper is one spot above him on that metric.
The countryman de Minaur just beat, Jordan Thompson, believes his Davis Cup teammate, “doesn’t really have any holes”.
“If he does hit an average shot; he more than makes up for it with his speed and his defensive skills,” Thompson said. “It’s like, if you hit a good shot; he’ll hit a better one back, especially if he’s on the move. So, it’s just really tough playing him. He doesn’t play with a lot of spin either, so the ball shoots through.
“He’s got an opportunity in front of him, and I’m sure he knows that, but he’ll die trying to win this tournament.”
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De Minaur’s three matches against Draper have all been competitive affairs, with none of them completed without dropping a set.
The sole one at a grand slam was in the second round at Wimbledon two years ago, when they split two lengthy, tight sets before a physically superior de Minaur steamrolled the tiring Brit.
“I played a great [second-set] tiebreak, and you could just tell how the whole momentum switched … [and that] he was maybe struggling a bit physically, and I was able to pounce on that,” de Minaur said after that 2022 clash.
That has been a knock on Draper during his career, although he has demonstrated improved fitness and commitment during his breakout season, including his coach, James Trotman – who previously worked at Tennis Australia – banning him from consuming caffeine during the US Open.
“I always was someone who liked to enjoy myself, enjoyed time at home, and maybe didn’t have a working mindset,” Draper said.
De Minaur, pictured after beating Draper at Wimbledon two years ago, has a 3-0 head-to-head record against the Brit. Credit: AP
“The life of a tennis player is very different to that. I had to be a bit more lonely and make sure I’m doing all the right things for my warm-ups, my cooldowns, keeping my body fresh, my ice baths, my gym sessions.
“Since last year, I’ve definitely put my head down a lot more and just focused on myself and what’s important to me.”
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De Minaur and Draper will face off in the early hours of Thursday morning for the right to play the winner between world No.1 Jannik Sinner and 2021 US Open winner Daniil Medvedev.
The other men’s semi-final will be between Americans Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe, who ousted Zverev and Bulgarian ninth seed Grigor Dimitrov.
Fritz downed Zverev 7-6 (7-2), 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7-3) to reach his first slam semi-final, and Tiafoe advanced when Dimitrov retired with a leg injury while trailing 6-3, 6-7 (5-7), 6-3, 4-1.
On the women’s side, Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka trounced China’s Zheng Qinwen 6-1, 6-2, while Emma Navarro continued the United States’ strong tournament with a 6-2, 7-5 dismissal of Paula Badosa.
Watch every match of the 2024 US Open ad-free, live and on demand on Stan Sport with select matches live on 9GO and streaming on 9Now.
