NFL trend watch: big passing days appear to be on the way back

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Passing pyrotechnics

This has been a season defined by defensive minds and bodies keeping quarterbacks quiet. The paltry passing numbers have been so alarming that veteran analyst Mel Kiper delivered the hot take of the year by calling for a ban on two-high safeties. Rather than shaking his fist at the cloud coverage, Kiper just needed a little patience for offenses to adjust to this new climate, which they finally did in Week 5.

Sepia tones were swept away by the glorious Technicolor of wide receivers weaving through backfields and sprinting by slack-jawed defenders. Rusted highlight reels ground back to life with a Ja’marr Chase 70-yard catch-and-run here, a Kirk Cousins home run OT score there and a whole lot of madness in Burrow v Jackson, with an undercard to match from Lawrence v Flacco.

Passing touchdowns kissed a total of 46, a high for any week so far, with one score a cut above the rest: CJ Stroud’s sweeping brush stroke to Nico Collins. Houston’s tandem were in total harmony as Stroud sent the ball 59 yards right into the receiver’s arms. It was made all the more striking by the score helping deliver the Texans a statement win over another AFC contender, the Buffalo Bills. But the win came at a cost as Collins sustained a hamstring injury. Fortunately for Houston their next opponents, the inert New England Patriots, provide them with an opportunity to scrape by without Collins and get to 5-1.

Denver Broncos

Seeing as defense has been running things of late, Vance Joseph’s premier unit need some love for boosting the Broncos to a third successive win. The orange crush have the power to stamp their authority from kick-off as seen in wins against the Bucs and Jets (who were both kept to single-figure point totals) and through exquisite playmaking. The Raiders were cruising with a 10-3 lead and sitting on the Broncos’ five-yard line on Sunday when Gardner Minshew’s pass was caught in the end zone … by Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain II. His 100-yard pick six lit the touchpaper for a ridiculous run of 31 unanswered points for Denver.

Impressively Joseph is doing all this with only one first-round pick, Surtain, on his defense. With only one star to call on, Joseph is leaning on everything he’s learned since being fired as Denver’s head coach in 2018, and struggling at times last season. Without a dominant pass rusher he takes a simple approach to maximise what players do well while leaning on his excellent pass coverage – cornerback Riley Moss is enjoying a breakout season opposite Surtain – and blitzing at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

After five games the Broncos defense now has a league-best expected points added (EPA) per pass of -0.3. That makes sense considering they are limiting opposing quarterbacks to only 135 yards passing per game. At this pace a first winning season for the Broncos since 2016 is far from a long shot.

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Cleveland Browns

It is reasonably safe to assume Karl Marx would have lumped professional sport in with religion as an opium of the masses. It certainly reads well when substituted into Marx’s text. “Sports fanaticism is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions.” Unless you happen to watch the Browns. Cleveland are no balm for suffering: 0-16 in 2017, a last division title in 1989, one playoff win in 30 years, Johnny Manziel. There is no hope here. There certainly never will be while Deshaun Watson is under center.

The 1-4 Browns willingly entered into a fully guaranteed $270m deal with Watson, who had been accused of multiple sexual assaults with the hope he could transform the team’s on-field chances. But his play on Sunday was as awful as ever.

Watson’s inability to run an offense hammered that point home from first and goal on the two-yard line on Sunday. A false start immediately backed the Browns up five yards, then a timeout was wasted after they failed to get a play off, next Watson took one of seven sacks on the day after holding on to the ball too long. Two incomplete passes later, followed by a delay of game when the plan was clearly to go for the touchdown, and Cleveland had kicked a 31-yard field goal. The haunted disbelief etched on coach Kevin Stefanski’s face when Watson approached him on the sideline said everything.

New York Jets

When the New York Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers they thought they were getting a quarterback who could handle defensive pressure. After his worst showing yet, in Sunday’s defeat to the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings that cost head coach Robert Saleh his job, it appears he is seriously in decline. Rodgers was slow to react to man coverage, his radar was off as he missed throws, took avoidable sacks and struggled to escape pressure. What he did offer was an awful interception when his receivers were locked up in tight coverage through. Accuracy used to be Rodgers’s calling card; without that – and no running game (the Jets’ 14 attempts on Sunday yielded just 36 yards) – it is difficult to see where his team turn from here.

Rodgers dropped back 54 times on Sunday, managing only 4.5 yards per play with a pick six and two other interceptions. These struggles are partly on the 40-year-old, but they also speak to a lack of creativity coming from coordinator Nathaniel Hackett – the Jets are the only team without a 20+ yard play from play action in 2024. That has to change to give the team a chance, considering how well the defense is playing.

With time up for Saleh, GM Joe Douglas must also be close to the exit if the Jets continue to look like earning a sixth losing season under his tenure. Why not bet the house on receiver Davante Adams being the missing piece to fire up Rodgers? He already has his thumb in the air: the Jets should pick up the former Packer and give their offense a chance of finding some cohesion.