NFL trend watch: Baker Mayfield swashbuckles as Mayo’s Pats stumble

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Baker Mayfield

The MVP race is heating up with Jared Goff and Jordan Love entering the frame while Lamar Jackson continues his tear to a third award after throwing five touchdowns came against the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay’s quarterback may not have been on Jackson’s stratospheric level on Monday, though Baker Mayfield did put in another dashing outing that featured 370 yards through the air along with two early interceptions and three successive touchdown drives late in the game. Mayfield was at his truculent best as he flexed his credentials as Tampa’s leader, overcoming adversity of his own doing, as well as losing receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injury during the game.

The 29-year-old was richly rewarded for a career year in 2023 with a $100m contract extension this offseason, and is keeping up his end of the bargain with a follow-up that is even better. Mayfield leads the NFL in passing touchdowns with 18, while he sits third in completion rate at 70.5% (up six percentage points from last season). Efficiency and accuracy issues have improved from his time in Cleveland – he finished 21^st in success rate and completions in year one with the Bucs after coming 28^th in the accuracy stakes with the Browns in 2020. For Mayfield to be so high up the charts now represents a hugely promising upswing.

The road to get here has been rough, being thrown on the scrapheap by the Browns of all teams would trigger impostor syndrome in the most ironclad of minds, but Mayfield has fought on. It will be fascinating to see how this atypical underdog keeps fighting without Evans and Godwin in the fray.

Rookie defenders

It is easy to forget about the defensive talents starting life in the NFL, such is the weight of expectation on the quarterbacks and receivers drafted in the first round.

Seattle took Byron Murphy II with the 16^th overall pick this year, and he has been quietly exceeding expectations – when he has been on the field. With the defensive tackle healthy they have gone 4-0 while losing the three contests Murphy missed with a hamstring injury. Seattle’s run stopping is where he has had the greatest effect: they have given up 126 yards per game – helping limit opposition to only 14.3 points per game – with him and 172 yards/34.7 points per game without. He has been a steadying hand, making few splashy plays of his own while drawing attention away from his teammates so they can go to work. Seattle defensive end Dre’Mont Jones was free to torment Kirk Cousins with four quarterback hits, a sack, and a pass deflection on Sunday while Atlanta were stuck in the mud fighting off Murphy.

Over at the Seattle’s NFC West rivals, this year’s 19^th overall pick, Jared Verse, is making a name for himself with the Rams. The edge rusher is generating pressure with a 27% success rate, the fourth-highest in the NFL. The Raiders certainly felt Verse’s presence as two of his tilts at the quarterback created vital turnovers. The knock on him is that he only has one sack so far. If Los Angeles can put some guidance on their missile they could have an elite playmaker.

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New York Giants

“The Giants thing I don’t really understand. [Barkley] was their best player,” said Bill Belichick on the Pat McAfee show. “For a couple million dollars more they could have kept him. Instead, they got a guard or somebody, I don’t know. The offensive line doesn’t look very good.” The Giants’ former defensive coordinator didn’t hold back in his assessment of the poor decision making that led to a thrashing from former hero Saquon Barkley and the Eagles on the way to a 2-5 start.

It was inevitable Barkley would remind the Giants of his worth though as Belichick pointed out the worst issue for the team is how exposed quarterback Daniel Jones has been behind a poor offensive line shattered by the loss of left tackle Andrew Thomas for the season.

Thomas’s replacement Joshua Ezeudu, a guard, allowed two sacks and three pressures while the former seventh-overall pick and, more importantly, tackle Evan Neal watched the horror show unfold from the sideline. More than likely Neal will slot in against the Pittsburgh Steelers to see how effective he can be but the omens aren’t good for whoever plays quarterback if a first-rounder isn’t seen as being ready to step in immediately when their rock was injured.

Maybe Neal’s stock is still tanked after allowing Jones to be sacked 11 times in a single game last season. It would certainly help explain why the G-men are kicking the tires on veteran free agent DJ Humphries in an attempt to tighten things up.

Jerod Mayo

There were no expectations that New England’s head coach was going to turn the team around instantly in his first season with the Patriots, not with a roster that earned a top-three pick in this year’s draft. But the signs are bleak that anything is likely to improve, even if rookie QB Drake Maye has played well enough in his two starts. The Patriots have lost six in succession with an offense that produces 14.1 points per game and a defense that allowed the 2-5 Jaguars to score 22 points in a single quarter.

Worse, Mayo called his team soft after the thrashing in London while preaching throughout his career that his style is “demanding without demeaning”. He is right that the team have been folding in games – in the past five outings New England have given up 167.4 yards per game on the ground – though surely a better option for Mayo would have been to adjust his coaching practices in private. His players may agree they have not been good enough. They could also be slightly confused and annoyed going into a winnable game against the New York Jets. The performance against their rivals may speak volumes as to how Mayo’s players feel about their head coach.