Miami Open draw preview: Sabalenka’s challenging run and Swiatek’s destiny with Keys

March 20, 2025
9:17 pm

Miami Open draw preview: Sabalenka’s challenging run and Swiatek’s destiny with Keys

Let’s preview each quarter of the Miami Open WTA draw and analyze who we can expect to perform well based on the form displayed so far this season.

First Quarter: Sabalenka Leads a Competitive Section

Aryna Sabalenka headlines the first quarter as the world number one and top seed. She arrives for the Miami Open following a heartbreaking defeat in Sunday’s Indian Wells final. Sabalenka had a stunning run in the desert, reaching the final without dropping a single set. However, after a strong start against Mirra Andreeva. She remains the top favorite in this quarter, which also features Elena Rybakina. Meanwhile, Qinwen Zheng looks to build on her promising return to form at Indian Wells, where she ended a losing streak and advanced to the quarterfinals. If both Zheng and Rybakina reach the Round of 16, they will set up one of the most anticipated clashes of the tournament next Monday.

Second Quarter: A Wide-Open Battle Without Clear Favorites

The second quarter promises to be highly competitive due to the absence of a dominant favorite. Based on her performance during the Australian swing, Naomi Osaka surprisingly tops the performance heatmap in this section, ahead of even Coco Gauff.

Gauff, the third seed, snapped her losing streak at Indian Wells, but she remains far from her peak form. Other notable contenders, such as Daria Kasatkina, Ons Jabeur, Ekaterina Alexandrova, and Jasmine Paolini, have shown flashes of brilliance this year but have yet to deliver a breakthrough result. Perhaps the openness of this quarter will provide them with the perfect opportunity to step up in Miami.

Third Quarter: Can Andreeva Continue Her Dream Run?

Mirra Andreeva arrives for the Miami Open riding a wave of momentum after securing back-to-back titles at WTA 1000 events. The young sensation will be under the spotlight as fans eagerly watch to see if she can continue her fairytale run and achieve the prestigious Sunshine Double.

Jessica Pegula, the fourth seed, brings consistent results and remains a strong favorite to reach at least the quarterfinals. Several other players could make a deep run, including Amanda Anisimova, Emma Navarro, and McCartney Kessler. The list of contenders in this quarter is deep, with at least eight potential names in the mix.

Fourth Quarter: Swiatek’s Quest for a Big Title Continues

Iga Swiatek leads the fourth quarter as the top seed and statistical frontrunner. However, a significant potential clash looms—Madison Keys is also in this section, setting up a possible rematch of their Australian Open semifinal thriller, which Keys won in three sets.

Swiatek has consistently reached the latter stages of tournaments this season but has struggled in the decisive moments, failing to reach a final in 2025 despite dominant early-round wins, including several bagel sets. Keys made a deep run in Indian Wells, but was completely overpowered by Sabalenka in the semifinals, suffering an unexpected 0-6, 1-6 defeat.

This quarter is packed with notable names. Belinda Bencic, still unseeded but rapidly climbing the rankings (now 45^th).

Other players to watch are Elina Svitolina, Paula Badosa, as well as Karolina Muchova, Clara Tauson, or Jelena Ostapenko. All of them can make a deep run out of the last section.

Data supplied by TennisRatio.com, helping to visualize the performance statistics of the best ATP/WTA tennis players. Their analysis focusses on who performs best on serve and return, who dominates their opponents and who’s game most efficiently translates into results.