The points deduction Manchester City will likely face if they’re found guilty of their FFP charges would “effectively guarantee relegation” according to a football finance expert who also expects the board of directors to leave their posts as they will have been outed as “liars”.
An independent hearing into the Citizens’ alleged breaches of financial fair play finished in mid-December, and with a verdict expected imminently a number of sanctions have been touted, including points penalties, transfer embargoes, stripping titles and even complete expulsion from the Premier League.
City have claimed two legal wins over the Premier League, with Associated Party Transaction (APT) rules deemed ‘null and void’ in the most recent ‘significant’ victory for the club.
But they will be sweating the outcome of the FFP hearing despite insisting on their innocence throughout proceedings.
Both Everton and Nottingham Forest were docked points in 2023/2024 for breaking Profit and Sustainability (PSR) rules, and City look set to be hit considerably harder if they’re found guilty.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire, speaking on the Football on Trial: The Manchester City Charges podcast on BBC Radio 5 Live, claimed a points deduction which should “guarantee relegation” is the most likely scenario.
“A points deduction would be the most likely outcome should the club be found guilty,” he explained.
“As for the quantum of points deduction, if Everton were initially given a 10 points deduction for going around about £10/12 million over the limits in one particular season, I think, in order to set an example to the rest of football, it’s got to act as a deterrent.
“We’ll probably be looking at somewhere in the region of 60 to 100 point, which would effectively guarantee relegation out of the Premier League and into the lower tiers of football in the EFL.”
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Maguire also believes that a guilty verdict would force the Manchester City board of directors to leave their posts.
“The other thing that would happen is that the board of directors at Manchester City effectively would be proven to be liars and misrepresenting the state of the football club to the authorities; I don’t see how they can keep their jobs.”
There have been claims in the past that City may not have anywhere to go if they’re relegated or even expelled from the Premier League, but Maguire believes the EFL would have to accept them.
He added: “There has been a suggestion that the EFL might refuse to accept Manchester City in terms of its competition, but looking at their rulebook, I don’t think that is feasible.”
