Contrary to the extremely top-heavy NFC conference, this year’s AFC has all the makings of a juggernaut in the National Football League.
Patrick Mahomes and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will compete against Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals, C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans, Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills, Tua Tagovailoa’s Miami Dolphins and Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets among others.
Sheesh.
The conference is basically a magnet for action in Las Vegas.
“We have almost double the handle in the AFC pool right now,” Westgate SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon told FOX Sports from the desert. “With so many good teams, it gives customers plenty of options.”
You’ll never guess the SuperBook’s biggest liability, though.
“We have more tickets on the Steelers to win the AFC than any other team,” Degnon reported. “Bettors seem to love them every year, but it’s even more than usual. They don’t even care who the quarterback is. Last year, we wrote tons of Steelers money with Kenny Pickett as the starter.
“We posted the conference markets a week before the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh opened at 40-1, and we wrote bets right away. We’ve continued to move it down, and we even took some pops at 25-1. I guess they’re betting on the Russell Wilson and Justin Fields revenge tour.”
Here are the AFC title odds at Westgate SuperBook as of Aug. 25:
Kansas City Chiefs: +225 (bet $10 to win $32.50 total)
Baltimore Ravens: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Cincinnati Bengals: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Houston Texans: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Buffalo Bills: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Miami Dolphins: +1250 (bet $10 to win $135 total)
New York Jets: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Cleveland Browns: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Pittsburgh Steelers: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Jacksonville Jaguars: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Los Angeles Chargers: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Indianapolis Colts: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Las Vegas Raiders: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Tennessee Titans: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Denver Broncos: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
New England Patriots: +15000 ($10 wins $1,510 total)
Since replacing Alex Smith with Mahomes at quarterback, Kansas City has reached the AFC Championship Game in six straight seasons. That’s two shy of New England’s otherworldly run of eight straight trips from 2011 to 2018 with the Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and Rob Gronkowski trifecta.
Vegas sportsbooks have mostly sucked the life out of the Chiefs’ AFC odds, knocking them all the way down around the 5-2 range. Shops like Caesars and FanDuel are dealing +340 and +350, respectively, if you’re feeling froggy.
I bet the Chiefs to win it all at 6-1 three weeks ago.
Texans, Bengals, Jets highlight JMac’s ‘6-Pack’ of teams to dethrone Chiefs
Perhaps the most overhyped team in the AFC is the Texans. You almost never see a team pick No. 2 and No. 3 in the NFL Draft one year then catapult to the three-line in a conference market the following year.
The Texans were as high as -300 to miss the playoffs in 2023. Now they’re 7-1 or 8-1 to reach the Super Bowl in the 2024 campaign.
Wild, huh?
“Houston is the sexiest team in the conference,” Degnon admitted. “We opened around +1250 and took bets right away. Obviously, the Texans had a really good offense last year and added Stefon Diggs. They’re very trendy.”
Meanwhile, nobody is betting the Patriots to do much of anything. Rookie head coach Jerod Mayo has to replace the greatest coach of all-time and New England’s offense could easily be the least talented in all of football.
So … four wins? Maybe five?
“I don’t know if they’re going to be the worst team in the league, but the Patriots are going to pick near the top of the draft,” Degnon forecasted. “In terms of their win total, we’ve got ‘em Under 5 (-150) right now.
“The defense will be scrappy, but the offensive line and the lack of playmakers are a big-time concern. Losing [Matthew] Judon depletes the pass rush, too.”
Long story short, Degnon and his SuperBook peers aren’t sweating the Patriots. That’s why they’re dealing New England at 150-1 to win the AFC. That’s essentially an invitation to step right up and place your bets.
The Ravens, however, are a different story.
“We’re dodging the Ravens pretty good,” Degnon said. “We took a couple big bets at 5-1 on them to win the AFC. They’re our second-worst result. It’ll be a lot better for the book if the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills win the conference.”
And the worst result?
“If the Steelers win the AFC, we’ll lose six figures.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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