The second edition of the College Football Playoff rankings is always interesting, at least to me. It gives you the first glimpse of how the committee sees these teams on a week-to-week basis.
This year’s second edition of the CFP rankings was made even more interesting after multiple top-five teams went down in Week 11. Oregon and Ohio State remained in the top two, while Texas slid up to No. 3. Penn State and Indiana entered the top five as a result, while another undefeated, BYU, was ranked sixth.
Georgia, who was previously ranked third, dropped all the way down to No. 12 following its loss to Ole Miss. Miami (Fla.), meanwhile, went down to No. 9, dropping five spots after its loss to Georgia Tech.
Here are my top takeaways from the latest CFP top 25 poll.
What to make of Indiana and BYU’s climb
The first thing that immediately jumped out to me was the vast difference that the committee viewed Indiana and BYU. Last week, I thought Indiana and BYU were being undervalued by the committee before each jumped up three spots this week.
You could make the argument that each team moved after arguably having their worst performance of the season. Indiana didn’t look like the Indiana team we’ve been accustomed to seeing in the second half of its win over Michigan. BYU was fortunate to win that incredible game against Utah, getting that penalty at the end to extend the game.
Still, the committee rewarded Indiana and BYU. I thought it was a bit of a human movement because the committee heard what people were saying after last week. After the first ranking, I thought both teams were in a spot where they had to go undefeated in the regular season or even win the conference championship. Now, I think each might have a mulligan, or at least Indiana does.
It seems like the committee is going to do one of two things moving forward, though: It’ll either make this the new norm or we’ll see wild fluctuations every single week. If we see wild fluctuations every single week, then no one would be safe. You could either move down nine spots, like Georgia, after losing, or move up three spots after your worst win of the season. If it’s going to be volatile, then nobody is safe.
If this is just the committee adjusting from its first rankings, Indiana and BYU might be able to lose a game and still make the CFP. I feel slightly better about Indiana’s chances than BYU’s in that scenario, though.
Indiana & BYU move up three spots in week 2 of CFP rankings
Georgia is playing for its CFP life vs. Tennessee
Georgia was ranked 12th in Tuesday’s poll, falling nine spots after its 28-10 loss to Ole Miss. After falling behind four other SEC teams and dropping to 7-2 on the season, Georgia’s playoff chances likely hinge on its game against Tennessee on Saturday.
Now, there is a scenario where Georgia could make it in the 12-team field as a 9-3 team. But it might be the only possible 9-3 team with a possible path to the playoff when you consider its schedule, which ranks as the toughest in the nation.
But this isn’t a great spot for Tennessee. Anytime Kirby Smart can play the “us against the world” or the “nobody believes in us” cards, he’s going to use them and that’s when Georgia typically plays its best. He did that just a few weeks ago at Texas, which was Georgia’s best performance of the season. Tennessee is also banged up, with quarterback Nico Iamaleava entering the concussion protocol this week.
I’m still very concerned about Georgia’s offense, especially as it plays against that incredible Tennessee defense. But the Bulldogs enter that matchup with a chip on their shoulder.
Georgia QB Carson Beck has thrown 12 interceptions in the last six games. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Miami (Fla.) was ranked too high, but it likely doesn’t have any margin for error
I was pretty surprised that Miami was ranked ahead of the top three two-loss SEC teams (Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia). I wouldn’t have done that as the committee ranked Miami ninth, falling five spots. Prior to the loss against Georgia Tech, Miami was perilously close to a loss for a few weeks against some average teams.
Following the loss to Georgia Tech, Miami is 9-1 with its best wins over Louisville and Duke. Miami ranks 39th in strength of schedule and is 1-0 against CFP top 25 teams. So, it’s not a bad résumé. But I don’t like where this team is at if they were to lose again. If Miami loses a second regular-season game, it’ll unlikely play in the ACC Championship Game. If the Canes lose in the conference title game, I wouldn’t love their argument at 11-2 over other at-large teams, especially those SEC teams.
Miami’s backs are against the wall. It’ll probably have to win out to reach the playoff.
Miami QB Cam Ward has been stellar for the majority of the season, leading the nation in passing yards and touchdowns. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
The Big Ten is in a great spot to get four teams in
Four Big Ten teams occupied spots in the top five of this week’s rankings, signaling that the conference has the inside track to getting four teams into the playoff. Indiana and Ohio State still have to play against each other, but Oregon seems likely to head to the Big Ten title game undefeated.
Penn State doesn’t really have much left on its schedule and James Franklin just doesn’t lose to unranked teams. So, Penn State has to feel great about making the playoff and very good about its chances of hosting a first-round game.
Going back to the Indiana point from earlier, it also looks like it’d stay within one of the seven-highest-ranked at-large spots even if it loses to Ohio State. As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes have the win over Penn State to fall back on with their only two losses coming against two undefeated Big Ten teams if they were to lose to Indiana next weekend.
With the Big Ten looking prime to receive four playoff teams, the ACC and Big 12 look less likely to have any at-large teams in the field. I don’t think Miami and SMU will make it. I’m not sure if BYU would make it if it lost to Colorado in the Big 12 title game, going back to the uncertainty of how the committee ranks these teams.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning and quarterback Dillon Gabriel have guided the Ducks to a 10-0 record, putting them in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten title race. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
General bracket thoughts
If Tuesday’s rankings held through the end of the season, here’s how the 12-team field would look:
Byes: 1. Oregon, 2. Texas, 3. BYU, 4. Miami (Fla.)
First-round matchups:
12. Boise State vs. 5. Ohio State
11. Ole Miss vs. 6. Penn State
10. Alabama vs. 7. Indiana
9. Notre Dame vs. 8. Tennessee
Ohio State currently occupies the fifth seed, but whoever gets that spot would be in a great place. You’d likely have a home game against Boise State or whenever ends up being the fifth-highest conference champion winner. If you win that game, you’ll likely take on the lesser of the ACC or Big 12 title winner (or perhaps Boise State) at a neutral site.
The other three first-round matchups would be great games. Could you imagine Ole Miss playing Penn State at Happy Valley or Alabama making the trip to Bloomington to face Indiana? That sounds awesome.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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