The first England Ladder of a new tournament cycle is always a tricky one, but we’re cheerfully getting our excuses in early by declaring this one to be an absolute sod of the first order.
All the usual problems – the first update in six months, a whole tournament’s worth of information to process and untangle, players moving clubs, players getting frozen out by clubs, retirements, the ravages of age… all that stuff – remain but on top of that we’ve got to treat this ladder as the ladder of a new manager who might not actually in fact end up being the manager. Although he probably will.
And Lee Carsley is a new manager about whom we still know relatively little, other than his shameful anthem aversion. In time we’ll surely come to a better understanding of what makes him tick, but for now there’s inevitably an awful lot of guesswork here – especially around those players who didn’t make this squad through injury.
A reminder that, as ever, the ladder reflects our best (in this case probably quite bad) guess at the thoughts of the current manager and not necessarily our own views.
March’s update can be taken in here, and the fact both Marcus Rashford and Jordan Henderson featured so prominently serves as a reminder that even after all those years Southgate could still catch us out. Carsley is likely to have us on absolute toast here.
1. Harry Kane (2)
We were all set to drop the great man down to his lowest level for almost a decade – something unthinkable like fifth or even sixth – after another plodding performance in Dublin vexingly reminiscent of his summer efforts. But then he did the inevitable against Finland, the great golden-booted bastard that he is. We retain our right to doubt how healthy it is for him to remain so unchallenged when he has looked so vulnerable for so long, but if his struggles really were injury-related rather than the start of a terminal decline then, well, that would be smashing actually.
2. Jude Bellingham (1)
Not involved in this squad and therefore it is technically possible that Carsley doesn’t rate him and has no plans to pick him in the future. Technically, that could be the case. We simply don’t know at this stage. Our suspicion, though, is that Carsley does in fact rate Bellingham and will indeed pick him when the opportunity arises. There, we’ve said it.
3. Declan Rice (3)
Not at his absolute best in the games against Ireland and Finland, but these were not necessarily games for a DM to shine. Hard to tell if the fact he got forward more was a plan or consequence of the opposition but he certainly took his goal nicely before that ridiculous non-celebration nonsense.
Either way, he played both games under Carsley just as he would have done under Southgate. He will continue to play all the games and remains the first name down when picking England midfielders despite the churning uncertainty of who might be picked alongside, in front of or behind him.
4. Jordan Pickford (6)
Had very little to do in these games, which may come as something of a relief after a harrowing start to the domestic season with Everton. Clearly very much England No. 1 until he isn’t, and absolutely no indication that such a time is approaching.
5. Bukayo Saka (8)
Played the whole game in Dublin and the first 66 minutes at Wembley. Is also brilliant. Was Southgate’s main man on the right, and absolutely no evidence that Carsley sees that any differently. And, frankly, why would he? Exactly.
6. Trent Alexander-Arnold (20)
Has spent almost the entire Southgate reign flitting around in the 20s on this ladder, sometimes on the right side of the bubble, sometimes on the wrong side but never, ever being anywhere near a spot where on pure talent he really ought to be.
Always felt like there was a good chance that was more on Southgate than Alexander-Arnold, and it really looks that way now. Hugely impressive in these two games having been given a proper chance to play right-back for England the way he plays right-back for Liverpool.
It seems a pretty obvious ploy, but it was one Southgate was never apparently curious enough to explore in his time at the helm. And the caveat that Carsley only tried it against teams who are quite bad is easily countered by the observation that Southgate’s England also played quite a lot of games against teams who are quite bad. Kind of a big thing in international football, that.
7. Anthony Gordon (28)
Joins Jack Grealish and Alexander-Arnold as the big winners of this international break. Started both games wide on the left – a conspicuous point of conflict during the Euros – and was crucial to England’s whole approach.
If we’re nit-picking we’d have liked to see a smidge more end product but Gordon’s pace and directness from out there on the touchline got England into some great positions over the two games. Finland weren’t quite as naïve as Ireland in giving him half a pitch to run into but there was still plenty of space for him and plenty of times where he could connect with Alexander-Arnold in particular to propel England forward at a speed that just really hasn’t been seen from them in a long time.
Gordon was not perfect, then, but he made a significant impression in a position where England have an obvious vacancy. Which is pretty sensible of him, really.
8. John Stones (4)
Carsley named four different starting centre-backs across these two games with long-term companions Stones and Maguire kept apart. No longer at all sure therefore that they remain England’s first-choice pair but we do think Stones is still one half of it.
9. Marc Guehi (12)
We think Guehi is now first choice alongside John Stones, even though this was a combination used for only five minutes of this international break. That admittedly goes slightly against the general plan of placing all our faith in what Carsley has shown us with his selections but also it just does feel like the most obvious and sensible reality.
As with every defender on this list – and especially centre-backs – these next couple of international breaks are going to be hard ones in which to make a positive impression, but Guehi carries heaps of credit from the summer and we don’t think Carsley is a complete rip-it-up-and-start-again merchant.
10. Jack Grealish (26)
The chief beneficiary of Jude Bellingham’s absence, Grealish was not just back in the squad after his Euros snub but handed the plum No. 10 starting role for games England were always likely to dominate. Obviously, he loved it. Especially against Ireland where it would be fair to say he didn’t appear to suffer from any of the philosophical agonies about such a fixture that so visibly afflicted Rice.
11. Phil Foden (9)
Very interesting indeed when he comes back into the mix. Jude Bellingham and now also Grealish stand in his way for the No. 10 role, while the benefits of Anthony Gordon’s more traditional paint-on-the-boots wide play on the left this week were pretty clear no matter what caveats exist about the competency of England’s opposition.
Very obviously far too good to be bombed out completely, but his England record really is starkly average and it’s hard now to see where a starting spot exists for Foden when everyone is fit and available. He suddenly looks like an absurdly overpowered first reserve in about three positions. Which is great for England, sure, but not necessarily for him.
12. Cole Palmer (25)
Ruled out of this squad, which is deeply unfortunate given the opportunity it presented an attacking player having the time of his life, but pretty much impossible to imagine a player who was one of Carsley’s U21 stars and who has since gone stratospheric being anything other than a key part of the new man’s thinking.
13. Kobbie Mainoo (11)
Took a weird amount of time for him to be England’s first choice in the summer but now faces a new and previously unlikely challenger in Angel Gomes. Mainoo started in Dublin but was replaced late on there and from the start against Finland by the pretender. These were probably planned changes but Mainoo – perhaps surprisingly – finds himself as one member of the squad who looks ever so slightly less secure now Southgate has gone than he did before, largely through no fault of his own.
14. Angel Gomes (NE)
A very encouraging debut in a position where a clear vacancy still exists for someone to nail down a starting spot under a new regime. As the most conspicuously Carsley pick in the entire squad, that is hugely exciting news for Gomes and means he must be considered ahead of the likes of Conor Gallagher within the squad as well as more obviously Adam Wharton and others currently outside it.
15. Harry Maguire (10)
That he started against Ireland in Carsley’s first game feels like a significant pick and immediately put to bed any idea that England under Carsley will look to move on altogether from a man who missed the Euros through injury and remains outside Man United’s first-choice XI.
These were never games where defenders would likely have much chance to prove themselves or show much of anything really, so all that’s left to go on is the fact Carsley picked him. And, as we say, that felt symbolically significant.
16. Ollie Watkins (31)
Shame he missed out here through injury, because had Watkins been around there would have been a very interesting decision for a rookie manager to make heading into Harry Kane’s big 100th cap night on the back of his woeful effort against Ireland. As it was, and not for the first time, Kane had no competition.
Watkins himself is already 28 and in no way Kane’s long-term successor, but he would absolutely appear to have seen off the immediate threats of your Callum Wilsons or Ivan Toneys to be England’s back-up striker in the short term, with no obvious immediate contender among Carsley’s U21 cohort.
17. Jarrod Bowen (19)
Vaguely interesting that when Kane was given an ovation-securing substitution late on against Finland it was Bowen tasked with at least nominally playing up front for the minutes that remained. He’s also done a bit of it for West Ham and for fairly obvious reasons it’s not a bad string to have to your England bow(en) right now.
18. Luke Shaw (7)
Doesn’t feel like a good time at all for late-20s Southgate Stalwarts to be missing, especially when it highlights a long-standing problem with a player as otherwise-excellent as Shaw. The fact that his place in the team was occupied by a centre-back in Dublin and a right-back at Wembley does, though, perhaps offer some encouragement. He might not be Carsley’s man, but nor has he (yet) been replaced. But there has to be a non-zero chance the new manager decides it’s time to move on anyway come what may, even if no perfect solution exists.
19. Dean Henderson (RE)
Had the number 13 shirt on the bench this week. That means he’s second-choice keeper, doesn’t it? We’ve nothing else to go on and there really isn’t a huge amount to base anything on with any of the assorted keepers trailing in Jordan Pickford’s considerable wake.
20. Ezri Konsa (25)
England’s fourth-choice centre-back, it would appear. Which is mainly fine. But there is growing competition for that role.
21. Rico Lewis (34)
With Kieran Trippier retired, there’s a clear opening for a right-back who can fill in adequately at left-back and Lewis appears to be the very ideal sort of young man to fill it. He’s a particularly pivotal figure with regards to England right now, with his progress at Man City spelling bad news for Kyle Walker in a couple of ways while also being a big help, for now, to Trent Alexander-Arnold.
22. Eberechi Eze (40)
It’s been a frustratingly ‘not quite’ kind of start to Eze’s England career but both Southgate and Carsley see what he has and they’re right to see it. He’ll get his chance over the coming months, you’d imagine.
23. Levi Colwill (35)
Didn’t look entirely comfortable at left-back and may in time slip behind Branthwaite in the centre-back pecking order but he’s in and around the squad now with a manager clearly willing to give relatively untested players a chance.
24. Morgan Gibbs-White (45)
Another player Carsley has picked at the first available opportunity, a fact we must note and respect. And absolutely a player who has that vibe of looking like international football might be just right for him. Don’t ask us to explain that, we can’t. But we feel it most strongly.
25. Tino Livramento (RE)
Still awaiting his debut but clearly now a big part of the right-back conversation. A conversation that will inevitably at some point feature the question ‘Can you play left-back?’
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26. Nick Pope (23)
One of the problems of trying to ascertain the inner thoughts of a new manager with a relatively slight CV is that there are plenty of places where there is little to go on. Have we decided Pope is third-choice keeper entirely because he sat on the bench for these games wearing number 23 while Dean Henderson was number 13? We prefer not to speak.
27. Noni Madueke (NE)
A Premier League hat-trick and an England assist. Not a bad old start to the season for Madueke amidst the Chelsea maelstrom and a clear early beneficiary of England’s new broom. But can he maintain his early-season form to demand inclusion when everyone is available? Tricky. Not impossible, but tricky.
28. Conor Gallagher (22)
In the squad, which is good, but appears now to have slipped behind Angel Gomes as well as Kobbie Mainoo in the England pecking order.
29. Jarrad Branthwaite (30)
Just a really sh*tty time to be injured in more ways than one. It was hard enough to get one’s head around Gareth Southgate picking Lewis Dunk over Branthwaite but, while we don’t yet pretend to know Carsley’s mind quite so well, we’d be very, very shocked indeed if that were an idea he’d have given anything more than a moment’s thought.
30. Kyle Walker (5)
Been written off time and again on the ladder and we’re not about to make the same mistake again. Not entirely, anyway. But no, he is no longer fifth on the ladder. Remember, these are always our best guess at the manager’s thinking, and not picking Walker at all in this squad is a pretty big clue. What Trent Alexander-Arnold did in those games is an even bigger one, while Rico Lewis could very soon ease past Walker for both club and country.
The argument in Walker’s favour, a compelling one, is that when push came to tournament shove it was always he rather than anyone else Southgate trusted, and that games like these are not where he shows his mettle anyway. But the counter to that is he was at fault for both Spain goals in the Euros final and he is the one senior Southgate starter for whom Carsley has the obvious personnel as well as the inclination to replace entirely with younger models.
31. Aaron Ramsdale (14)
Is going to play some football now at least but early evidence suggests doing so for Southampton might be more curse than blessing. Based on the current squad he’s behind Nick Pope and Dean Henderson and that seems perfectly fair; we’ll go with that until something convinces us otherwise.
32. Jarell Quansah (NE)
Has been told by Carsley that he needs to be playing regularly for Liverpool. Getting hooked at half-time in the opening game of the season and not featuring since must therefore be regarded as sub-optimal, but the games start to come thick and fast now and his chance will come, definitely for club and we suspect country.
33. Adam Wharton (NE)
Part of England’s Euros squad after a rise so meteoric following his move to Crystal Palace that Carsley had only given him a single chance in the U21s before his promotion. Due to be back with the U21s in this break but returned to Palace on medical advice. Double shame, that, and while he’s a new entry on the ladder he’s a lot lower now than he would have been in the summer. When, by definition, he’d have been in the top 26.
34. Marcus Rashford (17)
March was a very long time ago, wasn’t it? Feels like Rashford is absolutely miles away now but we’re not giving up entirely just yet. Which may very well be a bit of heart ruling head but there we are.
35. James Maddison (18)
Going to have to do something very special at Spurs over the coming weeks, you’d imagine, to force his way back into contention after being left out of the Euros and seeing competition for England’s attacking spots grow only harsher in the meantime.
36. Reece James (33)
Just an immensely frustrating lack of football from a man who, when fit and available, has looked as good as anyone for England in his position. But it’s a position where England have a whole stack of options. And current reports place James as still a couple of weeks away from making his latest comeback. Absolutely a player who will be in Carsley’s thoughts, but it’s still theoretically possible that Carsley doesn’t even have this job by the time he would be realistically able to pick James.
37. Lewis Hall (NE)
With Carsley as manager now and still no viable senior left-back in sight it strikes us as the very ideal time to be a 20-year-old pulling up trees for the Under-21s. If he can nail down a starting place at Newcastle over the weeks ahead he could have every chance.
38. Morgan Rogers (NE)
Playing more centrally more often for Villa this season, which is interesting and very possibly relevant. Scored twice for the Under-21s from the left this week and likely to get plenty of chance to impress given Villa’s busy schedule now they’re wearing their big boy Champions League pants.
39. Joe Gomez (21)
Versatility is an obvious bonus, not playing a single minute for Liverpool this season and being left out of Carsley’s first England squad not so much.
40. Ben Chilwell (24)
A Chelsea bomb squader who couldn’t even successfully get himself bombed out of the Chelsea bomb squad. Whatever lies in his future – can we interest sir in a Turkish loan move? – an England recall appears to be an absurdly long way down that list given Chilwell is a richly talented 27-year-old left-back and England have been mainly deploying right-backs and centre-backs in that position for the longest time.
41. Dominic Solanke (RE)
42. Eddie Nketiah (43)
43. Liam Delap (NE)
44. Kalvin Phillips (29)
45. James Trafford (38)
46. Curtis Jones (46)
47. Harvey Elliott (47)
48. Raheem Sterling (41)
49. Archie Gray (NE)
50. Phil Neville (50)
