Five teams built to beat the Chiefs: No. 1, Lamar Jackson’s Ravens

September 4, 2024
9:16 pm

Editor’s note: This is the last of a five-part series on the quarterbacks and teams best equipped to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs from becoming the first NFL team in the Super Bowl era to three-peat. No. 1 on our list: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (No. 5 was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, No. 4 was Brock Purdy and the 49ers, No. 3 was C.J. Stroud and the Texans, and No. 2 was Jared Goff and the Lions.)

Lamar Jackson threw his helmet to the ground in frustration, angry at himself for the error he’d just committed in the biggest game of his life.

His Ravens, trailing the Chiefs 17-7 with less than seven minutes left in last season’s AFC Championship Game, were in scoring position just outside the red zone. An opportunity to bring the game within a score was within grasp. But that’s when Jackson made an ill-advised throw to tight end Isaiah Likely, who was triple covered in the end zone. The pass was picked off.

It was the last of a number of costly mistakes made by Baltimore, which went on to lose 17-10.

For the second time in five seasons, the Ravens failed to turn the AFC’s No. 1 seed into a Super Bowl appearance.

For league observers, it was a reminder of the gap that persists between Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, who improved to 4-1 against the Ravens quarterback.

“That guy was the main guy I was playing for, honestly,” then-Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen said postgame of Jackson. “So much stuff he gets that he doesn’t deserve. This was his opportunity to be able to write some of that stuff off and move on to the next thing. That’s why it hurts, because you want to see people like that, teammates that you love and care about, get what they’re supposed to get.”

Who’s to say that can’t finally happen in 2024?

Playoff success has eluded the Ravens over the past several years, but arguably no NFL team is better equipped to supplant Kansas City than Baltimore, which boasts a roster filled with big-game experience and top-end star power.

It starts with the 27-year-old Jackson, who won his second MVP award last season, becoming one of just 11 players in league history to win multiple MVPs. As a passer, Jackson had career-highs across the board — in passing attempts (457), completion rate (67.2%), interception rate (1.5%), passing first downs (167) and yards per attempt (8.0). He also added a team-high 821 rushing yards, his fifth straight year leading the Ravens in rushing.

Jackson was one of six Ravens last season to receive first- or second-team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press. The others were Queen, middle linebacker Roquan Smith, safety Kyle Hamilton, defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and fullback Patrick Ricard. Besides Queen, who signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers in free agency, all are back for a Baltimore team returning 14 starters.

One of the new starters is perennial Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry, who signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Ravens in free agency after a historic tenure with the Tennessee Titans. The league’s carries leader since 2022, Henry forms a potentially lethal backfield tandem with Jackson, one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks of all time.

The Ravens start their 2024 season right where they left off, against the Chiefs. On Thursday night in Kansas City, Jackson & Co. will watch Mahomes & Co. raise another banner. Could that be Baltimore next year?

What is on the line for Lamar Jackson vs. Chiefs?

Why Jackson and the Ravens could beat the Chiefs in a potential playoff rematch

Baltimore’s lone touchdown in last season’s AFC Championship Game, a 30-yard connection between Jackson and wide receiver Zay Flowers in the first quarter, was made possible by the run game.

Early in that drive, facing a fourth-and-1 from their own 34, the Ravens called a designed run for Jackson, who picked up 21 yards. The next play, running back Gus Edwards picked up 15 yards on the ground. The touchdown pass followed Edwards’ run.

A stronger emphasis on the rushing attack is what could propel the Ravens past the Chiefs in a potential playoff rematch.

Many league observers were left scratching their heads when Baltimore went away from the run in the AFC title game. The Ravens led the NFL in rushes per game (31.8) and rushing yards per game (156.5) during the regular season, but they ran the ball just 16 times against Kansas City (nine in the first half, seven in the second half) for 81 yards.

Offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s approach placed a ton of pressure on Jackson’s arm, and the Ravens paid the consequences. Jackson was sacked four times and turned the ball over twice, and the Chiefs dominated time of possession, 37:30 to 22:30.

Naturally, Henry’s presence should keep Baltimore from leaning so pass-heavy against the Chiefs in a possible rematch.

The four-time Pro Bowler has historically dominated Kansas City, too.

In seven regular-season games against the Chiefs, he has 78 carries for 447 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and six touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. His 111.8 rushing yards per contest average against Kansas City in the regular season is his second-highest average against any team.

Henry’s success against the Chiefs hasn’t been limited to the regular season, either. In two playoff games against K.C., he has 45 carries for 225 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

What does Derrick Henry signing mean for the Ravens?

The Chiefs, who had their best defense of the Mahomes era last season, allowed 4.5 yards per carry in 2023, ranking 17th in the NFL. That average dips slightly against 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end), where Kansas City allowed 4.7 yards per rush and four rushing touchdowns in 2023, according to Next Gen Stats.

That’s where the Ravens could exploit the Chiefs.

Baltimore had 944 rushing yards on an impressive 6.0 yards per attempt with three scores out of 11 personnel last season — without Henry.

With the star running back in the picture, the Ravens become significantly more difficult to scheme against. Eleven personnel doesn’t typically offer a tell toward the run or pass, so the Chiefs would have to brace for the threat of a Henry run, Jackson run and a Jackson pass to one of his top two targets (Flowers, star tight end Mark Andrews) simultaneously.

That’s why the Ravens pose a massive threat to the Chiefs.

That’s why two-time MVP Jackson can finally reach the biggest stage.

Five teams that can prevent a Chiefs three-peat:

No. 1: Lamar Jackson/Ravens

No. 2: Jared Goff/Lions

No. 3: C.J. Stroud/Texans

No. 4: Brock Purdy/49ers

No. 5: Jalen Hurts/Eagles

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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