Australia have only just begun the first of back-to-back home summers where an ageing side is seeking to cement its legacy in a pair of Test series against arch-rivals India and England. Yet one match into the stretch of 10 high-stakes clashes and cracks are already starting to appear that might end some international red-ball careers – and the defence of one of their two world crowns.
India quick Jaspit Bumrah had more than enough tools to prise open the fractures in Australia’s batting lineup when twice tearing through the top order at the hosts’ former fortress in Perth. The humbling defeat leaves Australia needing to overcome a 1-0 deficit to win a Test series for the first time in 27 years if they are to reclaim the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. It isn’t quite vital that Australia immediately bounce back in the second Test starting in Adelaide on Friday, but another loss would leave them with next to no margin for error in pursuit of not one but two prized titles.
Australia are also at genuine risk of losing their grip on the World Test Championship without even reaching the grand stage of the final at Lord’s next year. The reigning champions tumbled from first to third place in the WTC standings – and crucially out of the top two spots that qualify for the decider – following their first Test loss to India and as other results counted against them.
India have climbed back into first place with their triumphant return to form against Australia and now have their hopes of qualifying for a third straight WTC final in their own hands. South Africa leapt from fifth to the critical second spot after their resounding victory over Sri Lanka, and helpfully have three home Tests to come.
With 13 Tests still to play in this WTC cycle that started in 2023, 10 of those matches to help decide the top-two finishers, and five teams still able to qualify for the decider, we look at how the remaining contenders are placed.
1. India: 61.11%
Best possible finish: 69.30%
Remaining matches: Australia (four Tests, away, Dec-Jan)
The two-time WTC runners-up lost top spot in the standings after their 3-0 defeat to New Zealand but snatched it back, and reignited their hopes of reaching a third consecutive decider, with a commanding victory over Australia in Perth. India can now ensure their qualification for the WTC final in Lord’s next year, as well as tighten their stranglehold on the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, with three wins from the remaining four Tests in Australia. But even a 3-2 series win for India in Australia would leave the door open for their foes to overtake them in the race for a WTC final place.
Jasprit Bumrah’s star turn in the first Test against Australia has helped lift India to top spot in the WTC standings. Photograph: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images 2. South Africa: 59.26%
Best possible finish: 69.44%
Remaining matches: Sri Lanka (one Test, home, Dec); Pakistan (two Tests, home, Dec-Jan)
The Proteas showed little interest in the World Test Championship when sending a second-string, and arguably even third-string, side to New Zealand earlier this year when the tour clashed with their lucrative domestic T20 tournament. South Africa put that contentious call behind them with series wins in the Caribbean and Bangladesh and are now as well-placed as any side to reach their first final. Temba Bavuma’s side can lock in a spot in the WTC decider with a second victory over Sri Lanka in the match starting on Thursday, then following up with at least one win from the two home Tests against Pakistan.
Marco Jansen took seven for 13 in the first innings as South Africa crushed Sri Lanka in the first Test. Photograph: Phill Magakoe/AFP/Getty Images 3. Australia: 57.69%
Best possible finish: 71.05%
Remaining matches: India (four Tests, home, Dec-Jan); Sri Lanka (two Tests, away, Jan-Feb)
The reigning champions dropped from first to third following their first Test defeat to India but their hopes of defending the title in London have not shifted dramatically as other results fell their way. Australia could now qualify for the decider with four victories from their remaining six Tests, and will even stay alive with a 3-2 series loss to India while then needing to sweep the series in Sri Lanka. Pat Cummins’ side might have their backs against the wall heading into the second Test under the lights in Adelaide but have proven in the past that these can be the times when they rise to their best.
Australia have been left searching for answers as they look to bounce back against India in the day-night Test in Adelaide. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP 4. Sri Lanka 50%
Best possible finish: 61.54%
Remaining matches: South Africa (one Test, away, Dec); Australia (two Tests, home, Jan-Feb)
Sri Lanka were sitting in third spot and ideally placed to overtake the loser in the Border-Gavaskar series after their own 2-0 clean sweep of New Zealand. But Dhananjaya de Silva’s side were brought crashing back to earth in South Africa when bowled out for 42 in the first innings on the way to a 233-run defeat. Bouncing back with a win in the second Test in Gqeberha starting on Thursday could set up a blockbuster series against Australia – the last for all teams in this WTC cycle – potentially with a spot in the final still up for grabs.
Sri Lanka’s hopes of qualifying for a maiden WTC final are still in their own hands. Photograph: Gallo Images/Getty Images 5. New Zealand 47.92%
Best possible finish: 55.36%
Remaining matches: England (two Tests, home, Dec)
The inaugural WCT winners were dreaming of a return to the final when they stunned India with a historic 3-0 sweep on foreign soil but were quickly handed a reality check by England in Christchurch last week. The Black Caps were later hit with a costly three-point penalty for a slow over rate to leave a spot in the final now all but out of reach. New Zealand’s fate is out of their own hands even if they win the two remaining Tests against England, as they will still require several results to fall their way including Australia beating India in three (but not four) Tests, then losing both of their matches in Sri Lanka.
New Zealand’s hopes of returning to the WTC final copped a heavy blow following a points penalty for a slow over rate against England. Photograph: Sanka Vidanagama/AFP/Getty Images
