Zack Wheeler is MLB’s best big-game pitcher, but Mets magic is better in Game 1

October 6, 2024
11:57 am

PHILADELPHIA — Zack Wheeler gave the Phillies everything they asked for.

After 111 pitches and seven shutout innings behind him, Wheeler was hardly breaking a sweat on the mound. After two hours of pitching, he looked like he would have no problem if he was asked to keep going. Really, letting Wheeler pitch until he was actually being threatened would’ve been the Phillies‘ best chance at winning the opener of the National League Division Series.

Because the moment Wheeler came out, the Mets pounced on the Phillies and comfortably took Game 1, 6-2, at Citizens Bank Park.

“Wheeler is nasty,” Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez said. “He’s one of the best pitchers in the league, and you could see it. Especially in the shadows early on, it’s like, dude, this guy is throwing airplanes up there. The ball’s taking off every which way. It’s like, good luck.

“You just gotta take him out of the game. You gotta find a way to get him out because the way he was throwing the ball today, it was just unhittable.”

But allowing Wheeler to pitch beyond the 110-pitch threshold was already a tenuous situation. Sure, manager Rob Thomson could’ve given him the eighth so that the Phillies had the chance to steal one or two more outs from their ace. But the most pitches he has thrown in a start this season (115) came in an outing against the Marlins in June. On Saturday, in his 33rd start of the year, after Wheeler had already dominated and walked off the mound with a one-run lead, having him come back out for another inning might have been asking for too much.

In hindsight, perhaps they should’ve asked him anyway.

After Wheeler struck out nine, walked four and allowed just one hit across seven shutout innings, the Mets immediately rallied for their fourth comeback win on the road in six days, beginning with Monday’s magic in Atlanta to clinch a playoff berth. Saturday’s late-game ambush featured one productive at-bat after another in the eighth inning, as six of the first eight Mets batters singled or walked against three different Phillies relievers. The two that didn’t reach base hit sacrifice flies, as New York pushed five runs across the board.

It sealed another improbable postseason victory for the Mets, who overcame a hostile Philly environment and a bullpen game that opened with Kodai Senga giving up a home run to leadoff batter Kyle Schwarber.

That the Phillies only scraped together two hits while Wheeler was on the mound, pitching a postseason gem that added to his reputation as one of the best pitchers in baseball, was a waste. The Phillies were well-rested after winning the division and earning a bye week. They had the home-field advantage behind a sold-out crowd of 45,751. They had their ace throwing fastballs at 99 mph, four ticks higher than his season average, and getting redemption against his former team, which let him walk away in free agency.

Saturday was all lined up for the Phillies to finish the job. Instead, the Mets have backed them into somewhat of a corner. The Phillies must win Game 2 at the Bank before the series turns over to yet another contentious environment at Citi Field, where the Mets will gain another edge, another upper hand, that they haven’t even needed to reach this point.

“I do believe in momentum,” Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo said. “And I believe that, you know, we have confidence right now. We have recent examples of coming back. I believe in the hard work that we’ve done and I believe in the preparation that these guys do each and every day.

“But momentum is a big thing. And having confidence is a big thing. And the guys are showing a lot of that right now.”

The Mets are surely feeling confident after stealing a win in a game started by Wheeler, who has established himself over the past three years as the best big-game pitcher in baseball. His Game 1 performance lowered his career postseason ERA to 2.18 across 12 appearances, which is the type of production that puts him in the conversation with the game’s best postseason starters in recent memory.

There are only so many starting pitchers that, in a playoff game when stakes are the highest they will ever be, the manager can trust with a strong sense of certainty that, not only will Wheeler pitch deep into his outing, not only will he save the arms in the bullpen, but he won’t spiral, either. Wheeler is excellent at avoiding the horrible meltdown inning — the exact situations that allow opposing teams to rally and put up a crooked number in the postseason.

But Wheeler, typically emotionless, stone-faced, and a cool customer, is a workhorse who has mastered the art of making adjustments, even as he gets older. In his age-34 season, while speed can tend to be valued over stuff, Wheeler still dominates while throwing a fastball that is ranked in the 67th percentile among his peers.

Wheeler finished the 2024 regular season with a 2.57 ERA (second-best in the NL, after Chris Sale) in 32 starts and 200 innings. It was the sixth time in his 10-year career he pitched at least 180 innings. Asked if this season was his best shot at a Cy Young, Wheeler pondered.

“I guess I could’ve said that about 2021, too, because that was my best season,” he told FOX Sports in September. “I was like, man, that was a really good season. That was cool. Maybe that was my best shot at getting it the Cy, and then I had a better year this year. I don’t know. Maybe I can do it again. It’s hard to do, but maybe.”

Though he has yet to win one, Wheeler has been a perennial Cy Young contender since joining the Phillies in 2020. And nights like Saturday are a big reason why the Phillies have been title contenders three years in a row now.

“Nationally, you’d love him to have it [the Cy Young award]. But from our own perspective, from the city of Philadelphia and the team, he’s regarded that way,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently told FOX Sports. “He’s also pitched in the biggest spotlight, and he has shined.

“So for him, it’s a situation where he has really established himself as one of the best pitchers, and one of the best big-time pitchers in the game. They’re two different things.”

Wheeler likely won’t get into the Hall of Fame because of how much injury sidelined him for the first half of his career. But he sure is pitching like he belongs in Cooperstown. Leading Philly to a World Series title would be a lovely consolation.

The Phillies, now 6-6 in Wheeler’s postseason outings, just have to stop wasting his precious gems.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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