One thing about sports and sports betting is that tough weeks are inevitable.
And last week was tough.
But no need to dwell on the past. Time to look forward and get our heads back in the game.
It’s bounce back time, folks. NFL Week 6, let’s go!
(All times ET)
SUNDAY, OCT. 13
Buccaneers @ Saints (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
This is a spot that doesn’t come along often. We’ve got a team coming off extra rest (the Bucs played last Thursday) against a team coming off a short week (the Saints played on Monday Night Football). The four extra days of rest and preparation gives a massive edge to Tampa. And let’s not forget the Saints defense was on the field for 80 plays Monday night. The league average is around 61.
Toss in the fact that the Saints are starting rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler because of Derek Carr’s oblique injury. Oh, and they have to face Todd Bowles and the blitz-happy Bucs. This is not a recipe for success for NO. Tampa has sent the third most blitzes in the NFL through five games (71).
Additionally, Rattler may be on his third-string center, and that’s for an offensive line that has been battered since the 2-0 start. As long as Mike Evans doesn’t get himself thrown out for fighting Marshon Lattimore, I feel great about the Bucs delivering on the road.
PICK: Tampa Bay (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Bengals @ Giants (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Hopefully you got this before the Malik Nabers news Friday that listed him officially out again with the concussion.
The overreaction to the Bengals’ loss has been predictable. They led the Ravens by double digits twice in the second half before some fluky stuff resulted in a tough home loss.
This feels like when the Bengals lost at home to Washington and then went to Carolina as a small favorite and ultimately pulverized the Panthers. I whiffed fading the Giants last week, as I underestimated just how bad the spot was for Seattle.
Yes, Cincy’s defense is porous. Whether it’s the run or the pass, you have to be careful backing the Bengals at too big a number because the defense is very susceptible. If you can get a -3, that’s the best number.
Not that trends matter much, but the bright lights have not been great for Daniel Jones. He’s 1-14 in prime time. The victory came in Dec. of 2022, so he’s lost five in a row. Prime time games are often against good teams. The Bengals are good — they just haven’t been good yet.
PICK: Bengals (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Blazin’ 4: Jets (+2.5) cover vs Bills, Chargers (-2.5) beat Broncos on the road in Week 6
MONDAY, OCT. 14
Bills @ Jets (8:15 p.m., ESPN)
Feels like forever ago that Buffalo smashed Jacksonville in prime time, and everyone pegged the Bills as Super Bowl contenders. Then they stepped up in class at Baltimore and were outgained 427-236 in yardage. Then last week in Houston, they were outgained 425-276. If C.J. Stroud didn’t have two brain-fart turnovers, the Bills get blown out.
Is Buffalo good? After you answer that, tell me how good they are offensively if they’re without James Cook (turf toe) and Khalil Shakir (ankle).
There’s no way to stretch the field, and the Jets can spy Josh Allen with a single high safety the same way Houston did.
The Jets are in disarray, yes. From the play-calling to the firing of Robert Saleh to struggling Aaron Rodgers. None of it is good. But those two tough losses in a row came against the teams with the two highest blitz rates in the NFL — Minnesota and Denver. Sean McDermott’s Bills don’t blitz. Buffalo only blitzes 15% of the time, which is the lowest rate in the NFL.
Rodgers should have time to throw, and the Jets should win a close game at home to turn around their season.
PICK: Jets (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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