College football Week 9 odds could see some serious regional bias show up on what’s definitely the Game of the Week: LSU vs. Texas A&M.
By Wednesday night, it was already apparent at Caesars Sports, which, like many of the big sportsbooks, has operations in Louisiana.
“Right now, we’re seeing more LSU money. We’re really popular in Louisiana. Tigers fans show up, and they bet,” Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on LSU vs. Texas A&M and more, in this week’s college football betting nuggets.
SEC Showdown
It seems like there’s a marquee matchup — or two or three — every week in the SEC. This week is no different, as the season inches closer to the first College Football Playoff rankings, which come out on Nov. 5 — Election Night, of all nights.
LSU and Texas A&M both want to stay on track for a high ranking. Both are 6-1 straight up (SU), with the Tigers 3-4 against the spread (ATS) and the Aggies 2-5 ATS.
“These two teams have similar stories. Both are undefeated in SEC play, both lost in Week 1 and haven’t lost since. Both programs are getting a lot of respect,” Feazel said.
The Aggies opened as 3-point home favorites and stood at -2.5 as of Wednesday night. And as Feazel noted above, there’s a reason that point spread got shorter: lots of LSU action.
“We don’t need LSU to cover,” he said, before projecting how he thinks this game will go, depending on who wins. “If Texas A&M wins, the total is going Under, and if LSU wins, it’s going Over.”
The total opened at 54 and is down a tick to 53.5. Feazel’s point is that if the Aggies win, their defense will carry the day, and if the Tigers win, it’ll be a higher-scoring affair.
College Football Rocks On FOX
For the second straight week, Nebraska is involved in the Big Noon Kickoff on FOX. And for the second straight week, the Huskers might get drilled.
Ohio State hosts Nebraska at noon ET on Saturday. The Buckeyes (5-1 SU/3-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, following a more-than-respectable 32-31 loss at Oregon in Week 7.
Conversely, the Huskers (5-2 SU/4-2-1 ATS) went to Indiana last week and got trucked 56-7.
In college football Week 9 odds, Ohio State is a massive 25.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. But that’s not keeping early bettors off the Buckeyes, who are drawing 69% of early tickets and 76% of early money on the point spread.
DraftKings customers also expect enough scoring to clear the total of 48.5. The Over is netting 87% of early tickets/93% of early money.
CFB Week 9 Best Bets: Ohio State vs. Nebraska, Akron vs. Eastern Michigan
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone felt strongly last week that Mississippi State would cover as 15.5-point home underdogs to aforementioned Texas A&M.
Stone was correct, as the Bulldogs lost 34-24 but beat the point spread.
In Week 9 college football odds, he’s again looking at the Texas A&M game, against LSU. Stone rightly notes that while this matchup might not be a playoff elimination game, the loser’s margin for error gets significantly smaller.
As noted above, neither team has lost since Week 1. The Aggies fell at home to Notre Dame, while LSU lost to Southern Cal in Las Vegas. A&M is a consensus 2.5-point home favorite vs. LSU.
Stone is once again going against the Aggies, taking the Tigers plus the small points.
“There’s a lot to like about both teams. But I’m a little more bullish on the Tigers at this point,” Stone said. “Entering the season, LSU clearly had defensive questions. The Tigers also had to replace a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback in Jayden Daniels, and two NFL first-round wide receivers, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas.”
Stone now feels more comfortable with LSU on both sides of the ball. He also pointed out that Brian Kelly-coached teams have performed well as underdogs in recent years.
Since the beginning of the 2015 season, when Kelly was coaching Notre Dame, his teams are 13-7 ATS as the underdog, including 4-1 ATS at LSU.
Public Piles On Navy
Could Navy or Army end up in the College Football Playoff? The short answer: yes.
Things have to continue to break right for both, though, starting with Navy’s game vs. Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium on Saturday.
The Midshipmen (6-0 SU/5-1 ATS) are nearly two-touchdown underdogs to the Fighting Irish (6-1 SU/5-2 ATS). Caesars opened Notre Dame -13.5, got bet down to -11.5, but rebounded to -13 by Monday night.
Kickoff is at noon ET Saturday.
“This year, it’s been death, taxes, and Army and Navy covering the spread,” Feazel said, alluding to Army being 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS. “Navy is a big-time public play this week. We’re gonna need Notre Dame in this one, and I don’t think that’s gonna change.
“They’re gonna keep betting Navy.”
CFB Week 9: Vanderbilt vs. Texas best bets, predictions & odds
Friday Night Lights
Friday night features another game that could have CFP ramifications: Boise State vs. UNLV. If the CFP was set today, the Broncos would likely be in as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion.
Boise State (5-1 SU/3-2-1 ATS) is coming off a bye, and its only loss was at Oregon, 37-34, on a final second field goal.
UNLV (6-1 SU/5-2 ATS) is also having a huge year for a program that’s had countless awful seasons. A win could get the Rebels in the CFP invitation conversation.
“This is a really exciting game. You’ve got the front-runner for the Heisman, Ashton Jeanty, coming to UNLV, which is a really gritty team,” Feazel said. “It’s a really good matchup, and whoever wins this one could be in the driver’s seat for the CFP berth. Army and Navy both have Notre Dame on their schedule.”
Boise State bounced between -3/-3.5 through midweek and was -3.5 (-105) on Wednesday night at Caesars.
“We’re seeing a lot of Boise State money. That’s not a surprise at all, with the explosiveness of Ashton Jeanty,” Feazel said. “This is a chance for UNLV to put itself on the map. I wouldn’t have thought in a million years that would be the case, that UNLV would be in this spot. But here they are.”
Alabama Bounce-Back?
Alabama is not enjoying itself lately. Which is wild when you think that, just four weeks ago, the Crimson Tide were coming off a hugely entertaining 41-34 home win over Georgia.
It was the game of the season to that point and vaulted ‘Bama to No. 1 in the AP poll and the favorite in College Football Playoff championship odds.
But it’s been a bumpy three weeks since, with losses at Vanderbilt and at Tennessee, sandwiched around a narrow home win vs. South Carolina. So Alabama sits at 5-2 SU/3-4 ATS, with no wiggle room to absorb another loss.
Missouri (6-1 SU/4-3 ATS) can’t really afford a loss, either, in this 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday kick. Caesars opened Alabama as a 14-point home favorite, stretched as far as -17 and stood at -16.5 on Wednesday night.
“Alabama is desperate in this spot. ‘Bama doesn’t want a third loss, especially with LSU coming up in a couple weeks,” Feazel said, noting a Nov. 9 showdown in Baton Rouge. “Ever since that Georgia second half, Alabama really hasn’t been able get through its offensive struggles.”
As for Mizzou-Alabama action as the weekend nears:
“There’s not a lot of interest in this game yet, outside of the total. There was a wave of sharp bets on the Under,” Feazel said, noting the total opened at 57 and is all the way down to 51.
Ohio State vs. Nebraska: CFB Week 9 Super Six
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
By late Wednesday night, there wasn’t much to report in the way of major wagers on college football Week 9 odds. But getting back to that service academy success, Feazel noted, here are a couple of interesting bets made earlier this year at Caesars Sports:
- $200 Army +500000 (5000/1) to win the College Football Playoff. If the highly unlikely happens, that bettor will profit $1 million. The bet was made in July.
- $500 Navy +400000 (4000/1) to win the College Football Playoff. Again, it’s seemingly impossible, but if the Midshipmen win it all, the bettor will profit $2 million. The bet was made in September.
It’s worth pointing out that, going into Week 9, Navy and Army have both shaved their CFP championship odds down to +30000 (300/1). Only 22 other FBS teams have shorter odds, and many of those teams don’t have a feasible path to the CFP.
But the Black Knights and Midshipmen do.
Army is currently atop the American Athletic Conference, and Navy is right on its heels in second. If either of those teams wins the AAC, and ends up as the highest-rated Group of 5 conference champ in the CFP rankings, then they’d at least get invited to the 12-team playoff.
If that appeals to you as much as it does to me, then root for these soldiers and for some chaos over the next few weeks!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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